O’Malley’s Market Minute | April 2026

In the latest episode of O’Malley’s Market Minute, Shaun is back with a grounded look on where the freight market stands right now and why the tension between supply and demand isn’t resolving as cleanly as some might hope. Here’s a full breakdown of what he covered.

Supply Side: Exits Are Happening, But Are They Permanent?

Supply-side pressure continues to build. Carrier exits are ongoing, and spot prices are climbing, but Shaun is careful to point out that a closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. Much of the upward movement in spot rates is being driven by rising fuel costs rather than a meaningful increase in the rate carriers are actually being paid to haul freight. A look at DAT data makes that distinction clear.

There’s also an important question about how permanent this supply exit really is. Some of it is structural, Indiana’s recent law stripping CDLs from non-domicile drivers, for example, represents a genuine, lasting reduction in available capacity. But a significant portion of the supply that has exited may not be gone for good. The used truck market isn’t strong right now, which means many of those trucks and drivers could be sitting on the sidelines, ready to re-enter if rates climb to a level where they can make money again.

That dynamic is the key tension. Without a meaningful uptick on the demand side, the supply contraction alone is unlikely to rocket rates to a new sustained level.

The Rate Recovery Question: Sustainable Pricing Over Speculation

Shaun is candid about what carriers and drivers are feeling: they want rates to go up, and there’s a real case to be made that current rates aren’t covering the true cost of trucking. That’s been true for a long time now, and shippers have had the luxury of riding that out.

But he notes a shift in how some shippers are approaching the market. Rather than purely playing the spot cycle, a growing number are leaning into the value proposition of working with specific brokers and carriers — and landing on pricing that works for everyone at the table. Expect to see more of that as the demand cycle continues to lag the supply contraction.

The headline takeaway: the conditions for a clean, rapid rate recovery don’t appear to be in place. Disruptions will happen, and DAT will show spikes, but the long-term trajectory of rates will still hinge on where demand goes from here.

Fuel Prices and Recessionary Risk: A Compounding Problem

One more factor worth watching closely: fuel. Prices have jumped considerably over the past month, against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. That matters beyond just the cost-per-mile calculation.

Historically, sharp increases in energy prices have either preceded or accompanied recessions in the post-WWII U.S. economy. And demand conditions coming into this period are already weak. Layering additional recessionary pressure onto an economy that isn’t in great shape creates real knock-on risk for freight: softer consumer spending, slower housing starts, reduced manufacturing activity, all the demand-side signals that ultimately drive freight volumes.

Shaun’s message is clear: keep a close eye on energy prices and consumer spending indicators. The supply story may be generating headlines, but the demand story is what will determine where this market ultimately lands.

The Bottom Line

The freight market remains in a difficult balancing act. Supply is exiting, but much of it may not be permanent. Spot rates are moving, but fuel costs are a big part of that story. And the demand environment, already fragile, faces real recessionary risk if energy prices stay elevated.

For shippers, now is the time to think about sustainable partnerships rather than simply riding market cycles. For carriers, the road ahead is still uncertain, but there are signs the industry is beginning to move toward a more honest conversation about what it actually costs to move freight.

To every driver out there keeping the supply chain moving: please be safe, and thank you for what you do.