O’Malley’s Market Minute | June 2026

Freight Market Uncertainty Is Back. Here’s How Shippers Should Respond.

Watch the full discussion below featuring Shaun O’Malley along with special guests Jess Jones, Director of Pricing, and Matt McCart, Pricing Manager.

For the past two years, transportation buyers have largely benefited from a shipper-friendly market. Spot rates remained low, capacity was readily available, and many organizations became increasingly comfortable relying on the spot market to manage costs.

That environment is changing.

While no one can predict exactly where the freight market is headed next, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: shippers are reassessing their transportation strategies as rates rise and market conditions become more volatile.

In a recent discussion on the O’Malley Market Minute, Bison Transport’s pricing team shared what they’re seeing firsthand from customers across North America and what it could mean for transportation planning in the months ahead.

The Bid Cycle Has Changed

One of the most notable shifts is the nature of the annual bid cycle itself.

Rather than completing a single procurement event and moving forward, many shippers are returning to the market multiple times. Additional bid rounds, mini-bids, and route guide adjustments have become increasingly common as companies try to determine whether recent market movements represent a temporary spike or the beginning of a broader trend.

According to Bison’s pricing team, shippers generally fall into three groups:

• Those waiting to see whether current market conditions will persist before making major changes.
• Those selectively moving freight back into contract arrangements while maintaining some spot market exposure.
• Those aggressively pursuing long-term contract coverage to improve route guide compliance and secure capacity.

The common thread across all three groups is uncertainty.

Why More Freight Is Moving Back Into Contract

As spot rates continue to rise, many shippers are becoming less comfortable leaving large portions of their freight exposed to the market.

Over the past several years, low spot rates created opportunities to reduce transportation costs. Today, many organizations are prioritizing predictability instead.

That doesn’t necessarily mean locking into long-term agreements at any cost. Rather, it means establishing transportation strategies that provide reliable capacity while remaining flexible enough to adapt as market conditions evolve.

The goal isn’t to “beat the market.”

The goal is to secure the right capacity at a fair market rate while protecting service levels and controlling transportation spend.

The Hidden Cost of Chasing the Lowest Rate

One of the strongest themes from the discussion was the importance of carrier relationships.

When transportation procurement becomes solely focused on finding the lowest rate, shippers can unintentionally create risk within their supply chains. Service disruptions, inconsistent capacity, and poor route guide performance often become more apparent when market conditions tighten.

Strong carrier partnerships provide value that extends well beyond pricing.

Transportation providers bring operational expertise, network flexibility, market intelligence, and the ability to support customers through both favorable and challenging market cycles.

As conditions become less predictable, those relationships often become a competitive advantage.

What Drivers and Carriers Are Seeing

The conversation also touched on the supply side of the equation.

While demand remains mixed across many sectors, capacity continues to exit the marketplace. Regulatory pressures, operating costs, and prolonged market weakness have forced some carriers to reduce operations or leave the industry entirely.

For professional drivers with strong safety records and compliance histories, this may create new opportunities as carriers compete for qualified talent.

At the same time, fewer available trucks can contribute to upward pressure on rates, particularly in seasonal markets and high-demand regions.

Keep an Eye on the Data

Although freight markets are influenced by countless variables, there are signals that can help shippers make more informed decisions.

Economic indicators such as Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, inflation reports, manufacturing activity, fuel prices, and freight market indexes can provide valuable insight into where conditions may be heading.

The challenge is not finding data.

The challenge is understanding how to apply it within your transportation strategy.

Key Takeaway: Flexibility Wins

The freight market continues to send mixed signals. Capacity is tightening in some areas, demand remains uncertain, and economic indicators suggest volatility may persist.

In this environment, the most successful shippers won’t be the ones trying to perfectly predict the market.

They’ll be the ones building flexible transportation strategies, maintaining strong carrier relationships, and making decisions based on both market intelligence and operational realities.

No one has a crystal ball.

But organizations that stay informed, stay agile, and work closely with trusted transportation partners will be best positioned to navigate whatever comes next.

Have questions about your transportation strategy or how current market conditions could impact your network? Contact your Bison Transport representative to discuss your specific shipping requirements.