May 2026 Freight Market Update: A Supply-Driven Shift Takes Shape

The freight market is beginning to turn—but not in the way many expected.

After an extended downturn, early signs of recovery are emerging. Volumes are stabilizing, and rates are beginning to rise. However, this shift is not being driven by a surge in demand. Instead, tightening supply conditions are doing the heavy lifting, creating a more complex and volatile market environment.

Demand Is Stabilizing—but Not Leading the Freight Market

Freight volumes are showing early signs of improvement.

The Cass Shipments Index declined 4.5% year-over-year, but increased 3.0% month-over-month, marking back-to-back monthly gains. More importantly, this improvement is occurring beyond typical seasonal patterns—suggesting potential for a broader recovery in the second half of 2026.

Additional indicators support this trend. The ATA Tonnage Index rose approximately 3% year-over-year, reinforcing that demand is beginning to turn.

However, demand remains relatively soft overall. While conditions are improving, they are not yet strong enough to drive the market independently.

Rates Are Rising—But Supply Is the Driver

Despite modest demand, pricing momentum has returned.

· Cass Linehaul Index: +1.8% year-over-year

· DAT spot rates: ~25% higher than last year

This disconnect highlights a key market dynamic:

Rates are increasing not because freight demand is surging—but because capacity is tightening.

Capacity Is Contracting Across the Freight Market

The supply side is where the most significant changes are occurring.

· Truck postings are down, signaling fewer available trucks

· Load volumes remain elevated relative to available capacity

· Driver availability is tightening again

· Carrier attrition—particularly among smaller fleets—continues

This imbalance between available trucks and freight demand is putting upward pressure on pricing and creating early-cycle tightening conditions.

Service Performance Is Starting to Slip

As capacity tightens, service metrics are beginning to reflect the strain.

Route guide depth has worsened to 1.41 overall, and 1.71 for long-haul freight, indicating shipments are increasingly falling through primary carriers and moving deeper into routing guides—or into the spot market.

The result:

· Increased tender rejections

· Greater reliance on backup carriers

· Rising costs and variability in service

These are early indicators of a tightening freight market, often preceding broader pricing shifts.

Fuel Volatility Is Accelerating Market Pressure

Fuel remains one of the most influential—and volatile—cost drivers in transportation.

With diesel prices elevated and fuel accounting for more than 20% of operating costs, carriers are facing significant margin pressure.

This has several downstream effects:

· Smaller carriers exiting the market

· Faster adjustments in spot pricing

· Increased overall rate volatility

In short, fuel is not just a cost factor—it is actively tightening capacity.

Produce Season Is Driving Real-Time Disruption

Seasonal factors are now amplifying these supply-side pressures.

The produce market has already experienced sharp tightening, particularly in Florida, where conditions shifted to full shortage in a single week. This resulted in rapid rate increases:

· Atlanta: +42%

· Chicago: +25%

As demand for refrigerated equipment surges, carriers are shifting from dry van to reefer freight, creating a ripple effect across the broader network.

Even shippers not directly involved in produce are feeling the impact through:

· Reduced dry van capacity

· Increased competition for trucks

· Rising spot rates

This disruption will continue to move geographically—from Florida into South Texas, and eventually into California—as the season progresses.

DOT Roadcheck Week Will Add Short-Term Pressure

Looking ahead, the DOT International Roadcheck (May 12–14) presents a predictable capacity disruption.

During this annual inspection event:

· Many smaller carriers temporarily pull trucks off the road

· Inspection activity increases

· Available capacity declines

The expected impact includes:

· Lower tender acceptance

· Increased spot market reliance

· Short-term rate spikes

This event will layer additional pressure onto an already tightening market.

Cross-Border Market: Tightening Beneath the Surface

While some headline indicators suggest the U.S.–Mexico market remains loose, the underlying reality is more nuanced.

Demand has remained relatively steady, but usable capacity is declining, largely due to increased compliance enforcement and regulatory pressure.

As a result, shippers should anticipate:

· Gradual tightening of capacity

· Upward pressure on rates

· Increased importance of reliable carrier partnerships

Featured Insight: O’Malley’s Market Minute

For a concise, high-level perspective on current market dynamics, we recommend watching O’Malley’s Market Minute, featuring Shaun O’Malley.

In this month’s update, Shaun highlights a critical tension in the market:

· Supply is exiting, but not all of it is permanent

· Fuel costs are playing a major role in rate pressure

· Demand remains relatively weak, limiting sustained rate acceleration

He also emphasizes the importance of watching broader economic indicators—such as consumer spending, housing, and energy markets—as they will ultimately determine the pace and strength of recovery.

Watch the full video here: https://www.bisontransport.com/customer-advisory/omalleys-market-minute-april-2026

What This Means for Shippers

The freight market is entering a new phase—one defined by tightening supply, rising costs, and increasing volatility.

Key considerations moving forward:

· Secure capacity early to reduce exposure to spot market volatility

· Increase lead times where possible

· Strengthen carrier relationships to ensure service reliability

· Leverage modal flexibility (including intermodal and LTL)

· Plan around known disruptions like produce season and Roadcheck Week

Final Takeaway

The market is improving—but not because demand is surging.

Supply constraints are driving the shift.

That means higher rates, tighter capacity, and more variability—even before demand fully recovers.

Organizations that plan proactively and remain flexible will be best positioned to navigate the months ahead.

Sources

· Cass Information Systems – Cass Freight Index, March 2026

· DAT Freight & Analytics – Dry Van Market Update, April 28, 2026

· DAT Freight & Analytics / USDA AMS – Produce Truck Rate Report, April 22, 2026

· American Trucking Associations – ATA Tonnage Index

· Bison Transport – O’Malley’s Market Minute (April 2026)