Are Tariffs About to Disrupt North American Freight?

After a period of volatility, freight rates have started to stabilize. But that does not necessarily mean the transportation market is back to business as usual.

In the latest episode of O’Malley’s Market Minute, we take a look at where the North American freight market stands today, from spot and contract rates to capacity, tariffs and the factors that could shape the months ahead.

Rates are stable, but demand remains soft

National van spot rates have remained below contract rates in recent months, while overall demand continues to look relatively weak.

At the same time, there are signs that the carrier base is tightening, with fewer trucks and drivers on the road for a variety of reasons. That creates an interesting dynamic: demand may be soft, but transportation capacity is not unlimited.

And demand for freight can only fall so far.

Transportation is deeply embedded in virtually every part of the North American economy. Groceries, medicine, energy and countless other goods all depend on a reliable trucking network. Even in a softer freight environment, there is a baseline level of transportation that the economy simply cannot do without.

Tariffs aren’t breaking the supply chain overnight

Tariffs continue to create uncertainty for Canadian and U.S. shippers, particularly in cross-border freight.

But North American supply chains have spent decades becoming increasingly integrated. Companies, suppliers, manufacturers and distributors on both sides of the border have built their operations around that interconnected network.

Could tariffs eventually encourage investment in domestic industries and change where certain goods are produced? Absolutely.

But in the short and medium term, those deeply integrated supply chains still need to move. That means the transportation required to support them isn’t likely to disappear overnight.

For now, the bigger story is less about a sudden decoupling and more about how businesses adapt as trade policy continues to evolve.

Behind every freight market is a person

There is one thing that can easily get lost when we talk about freight rates, capacity and economic indicators: the people actually moving the freight.

September is National Trucking Week in Canada, followed by National Truck Driver Appreciation Week. It’s a good reminder that behind every shipment moving from A to B is a driver doing a demanding job.

They spend long hours on the road, away from their families and important moments at home, through rain, snow, heat and everything in between.

The freight market may be measured in rates, capacity and demand, but none of it moves without the people behind the wheel.

To every truck driver out there: thank you for keeping freight moving, doing it safely and making it home to your families.

Watch the latest O’Malley’s Market Minute above for the full conversation and a look at what we’re watching in the freight market.